DELAWARE COUNTY FAIR · TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026
Race 1 — pace shape & trip projection
1 MILE · TROT · DELAWARE COUNTY FAIR - TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026 TROT OHIO FAIR RACING CONFERENCE 2 YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS - 1st Division Total Purse - $22,609 NO. 9 $2
Several want the same ground early. The pace gets honest to hot and the stalkers are dangerous. Helped: ROSE RUN CHAOS, BULLSEYE LANE, GOING STEADY.
Pressure = 1.0 per NEEDS-THE-LEAD horse + 0.5 per presser, summed over the live field. 0–1.0 lone speed, 1.0–2.0 honest, 2.0–3.0 contested, anything above 3.0 is a meltdown. There is no ceiling — the highest possible number is the field size itself (every runner an E), so a 10-horse all-speed race would rate 10.0. The higher the number past 3.0, the more certain the speed cooks itself and the closers inherit it.
Same winner either way — the horse does not need a soft lead. It wins whether it is let go or taken on.
Override the projected opening quarter: the horse you pick leaves and clears to the pylons, the rest of the field re-forms behind it and every call — quarter, half, 3/4 and wire — is recalculated from that trip.
Hover (or tab to) any horse for its conditional win% from that position. This is separate from the horse's pre-race stats percentage: rank and lengths behind receive progressively more weight at the half and 3/4, while remaining-race ability determines whether the horse can capitalize on that involvement. All position percentages total 100% across the field. Drag any number along the oval (forward/back to change its spot, up or down to change paths off the pylons) and every win% in the field re-solves live off that trip.
- 6ROLL LIKE I ROLL82%49%–86%▼1%
- 1HEY DRIVER7%6%–16%▼1%
- 4GOING STEADY4%4%–5%▲0.6%
- 7WHAT A HOUDINI3%3%–6%▲1%
- 9OTIS L3%2%–5%▲0.5%
- 3BULLSEYE LANE1%1.0%–2%▲0.2%
- 5LONGHAUL0.3%0.3%–0.7%—
- 2ROSE RUN CHAOS0.1%0.1%–0.2%▲0.1%
- 8MJS KENYA SHILLING0.1%0.1%–0.2%▼0.2%
The band is the runner's own demonstrated final-quarter range priced back through the field: the high end is the best quarter it has actually shown, the low end the worst, with every rival held at expectation. A wide band means the result still hinges on which version turns up; a tight one means position has already settled it. Bands narrow as the race shortens because fewer quarters remain for the range to matter. The arrow is the change in win% since the previous call — the percentiles improving or decreasing as the trip unfolds.
| # | HORSE | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | FIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ROLL LIKE I ROLL | 7 4.5L | 8 5.0L | 5 1.8L | 1 — |
| 1 | HEY DRIVER | 2 0.8L | 2 1.3L | 1 — | 2 3.2L |
| 9 | OTIS L | 3 2.1L | 5 2.6L | 2 — | 3 3.2L |
| 2 | ROSE RUN CHAOS | 4 2.3L | 4 2.5L | 4 1.5L | 4 4.5L |
| 4 | GOING STEADY | 5 3.0L | 3 2.0L | 3 1.3L | 5 4.7L |
| 7 | WHAT A HOUDINI | 8 5.3L | 6 3.3L | 6 2.1L | 6 5.3L |
| 3 | BULLSEYE LANE | 1 — | 1 — | 7 3.2L | 7 6.4L |
| 5 | LONGHAUL | 6 3.8L | 7 3.8L | 9 5.1L | 8 7.6L |
| 8 | MJS KENYA SHILLING | 9 6.0L | 9 6.3L | 8 4.4L | 9 8.3L |
Positions are cumulative: each quarter is run at that horse's own early/closing velocity, so a horse only passes another by actually running the intervening quarter faster. No call is invented independently.
Turn radius comes from the circumference and the two straights, assuming semicircular turns. Ground loss is the arc of lateral offset through whatever turn falls inside the call, plus the Pythagorean cost of angling in, and one length is a fifth of a second at the current pace.
The final-quarter edge is applied directly to the 3/4 deficit. Smallest total wins. Fastest closer is ROLL LIKE I ROLL at 26.7.
| FIN | HORSE | RECENT AT 3/4 | ACTUAL 3RD Q | CLOSING Q | PRESSURE | +SEC | FINAL-Q GAIN | FINAL-Q LINES | SEC BACK | LENGTHS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 ROLL LIKE I ROLL | 1.8L | 31.7 | 26.7 | 1.54 | +0.50s | +36.8L | 24.9 / 28.6 | — | — |
| 2 | 9 OTIS L | lead | 28.8 | 29.8(3RD Q) | 2.10 | +0.22s | +22.7L | — | +2.46 | 12.3L |
| 3 | 4 GOING STEADY | 1.3L | 29.3 | 29.5 | 2.10 | +0.28s | +24.0L | 29.0 / 28.5 / 30.9 | +2.48 | 12.4L |
| 4 | 1 HEY DRIVER | lead | 30.2 | 30.8 | 1.73PRESS | +0.31s | +17.3L | 34.0 / 30.3 / 28.0 | +3.40 | 17.0L |
| 5 | 7 WHAT A HOUDINI | 2.1L | 29.3 | 30.3 | 2.10 | +0.39s | +19.4L | 30.1 / 28.9 / 31.9 | +3.54 | 17.7L |
| 6 | 3 BULLSEYE LANE | 3.2L | 32.0 | 30.2(3RD Q) | 0.60LEAD | +0.11s | +21.3L | — | +3.54 | 17.7L |
| 7 | 8 MJS KENYA SHILLING | 4.4L | 29.3 | 30.0(3RD Q) | 0.70 | +0.50s | +20.3L | — | +3.82 | 19.1L |
| 8 | 5 LONGHAUL | 5.1L | 30.0 | 31.1(3RD Q) | 2.10 | +0.46s | +15.0L | — | +5.02 | 25.1L |
| 9 | 2 ROSE RUN CHAOS | 1.5L | 29.3 | 34.6 | 2.10 | — | — | 34.6 | +7.32 | 36.6L |