Live win probability, priced against the market

League

Verified game feed

NCAA · 10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT

ESPN public feed

DUKE

Duke

0:0

10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT

UVA

Virginia

DUKE goalDUKE ball · 1st & 10UVA goal

Possession

DUKE

Down & distance

1st & 10

Field

75 yds to goal

Timeouts

DUKE 3 · UVA 3

Last: No play posted

Model · UVA win

band 53.5%–64.5%

59.0%Fair −144

drive: TD 15% / FG 20% / none 65% · 24 possessions projected

Enter both prices

A market comparison needs both sides of the moneyline.

Live play-by-play

Newest first · 0 plays

No play-by-play has been posted for this game.

Outcome distribution

DUKE by 8+

24.2%

DUKE by 4–7

8.4%

DUKE by 1–3

7.0%

Tie

2.4%

UVA by 1–3

7.4%

UVA by 4–7

9.9%

UVA by 8+

40.6%

Projected final score · college model

seconds/150 baseline · 60:00 of game clock left

DUKE

–

UVA

Winner

UVA 59.0%

Margin

3 pts

Proj. total

46.5 vs 46.5

Confidence

medium

Versus the spread

UVA -2.5 covers53.0%

DUKE +2.5 covers47.0%

Versus the total 46.5

Over 46.550.0%

Under 46.550.0%

UVA by 8+40.6%

DUKE by 8+24.2%

UVA by 4–79.9%

All other outcomes25.3%

Pace-blended projection: 46.5 more points expected · ±10.5 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.

Forecast · what moves this number

Every row is the same model re-run on a changed game state, against UVA. Base right now: 59.0% · cover 53.0%.

If the clock just runs

Halftime

30:00 left · score unchanged

58.4% −0.6pt

cover 49.6%

End of 3rd

15:00 left · score unchanged

58.7% −0.3pt

cover 46.5%

Final whistle

0:00 left · score unchanged

50.0% −9.0pt

cover 0.5%

If the next score goes…

UVA touchdown next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

74.7% +15.7pt

cover 69.8%

UVA field goal next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

66.1% +7.1pt

cover 60.3%

DUKE touchdown next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

41.5% −17.5pt

cover 35.3%

DUKE field goal next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

51.5% −7.5pt

cover 45.2%

Point spread & ticket

Live spread (UVA pts) — type the line you can get

Game state — set where the game actually is

QuarterClock left in quarter

DUKE scoreUVA score

DUKE 0 – UVA 0 · 60:00 of game clock left · from the live feed

Live total (O/U) — type the number you can get

UVA juice DUKE juice

Stake · $50.00

No-vig

—

Edge

—

DraftKings feed · spread -2.5 · juice defaults to -110

Position manager

Enter the current price for both sides to calculate the original UIs’ probability-weighted hedge range.

Clock leverage

estimated possessions remaining

15:00 · college seconds/150 baseline · 0 scores to erase current margin

Possession count is the input casual prices often miss. Late one-score states carry extra uncertainty.

Guardrails

Daily limitBets todayBankroll $At risk $Session P/L $

Set limits before placing the first bet.

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