Live win probability, priced against the market
League
Verified game feed
NCAA · 3:49 - 4th
ESPN public feedWIS
Wisconsin
13:34
3:49 - 4th
ND
Notre Dame
Possession
ND
Down & distance
1st & 10
Field
34 yds to goal
Timeouts
WIS 0 · ND 1
Last: (03:53) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS34 (#97 J.Poyser; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
Model · ND win
band 97.3%–99.5%99.5%
EP 3.36 · 3 possessions projected · pace from 20 possessions used · drive length ignored
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A market comparison needs both sides of the moneyline.
Live play-by-play
Newest first · 30 plays4 3:49(03:53) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS34 (#97 J.Poyser; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
4 4:19(04:29) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #7 T.Washington caught at WIS35, for 6 yards to the WIS35 (#2 J.Robinson)
4 5:07(05:13) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS41 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung)
4 5:18(05:18) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #3 M.Graham thrown to WIS30 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (#5 B.West) 15 yards from UND41 to WIS44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
4 5:44(05:50) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 4 yards gain to the UND41 (#12 N.Clayton)
4 5:51(05:56) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to WIS40
4 6:26(06:32) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UND37 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWN
4 6:33(06:39) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left thrown to UND44 QB hurried by #51 M.Garner
4 7:07(07:14) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan caught at UND19, for 8 yards to the UND24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
4 7:51(07:57) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND16 (#7 T.Fearbry; #29 M.Jung)
4 3:49(03:53) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS34 (#97 J.Poyser; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
4 4:19(04:29) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #7 T.Washington caught at WIS35, for 6 yards to the WIS35 (#2 J.Robinson)
4 5:07(05:13) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS41 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung)
4 5:18(05:18) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #3 M.Graham thrown to WIS30 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (#5 B.West) 15 yards from UND41 to WIS44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
4 5:44(05:50) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 4 yards gain to the UND41 (#12 N.Clayton)
4 5:51(05:56) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to WIS40
4 6:26(06:32) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UND37 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWN
4 6:33(06:39) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left thrown to UND44 QB hurried by #51 M.Garner
4 7:07(07:14) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan caught at UND19, for 8 yards to the UND24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
4 7:51(07:57) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND16 (#7 T.Fearbry; #29 M.Jung)
4 7:57Timeout Wisconsin, clock 07:57
4 7:57(08:03) #91 S.West punt 38 yards to the UND12 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at UND12
4 8:03(08:06) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #0 T.Henry thrown to UND45
4 8:46(08:50) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS50 (#0 T.Gray; #7 F.Brewu)
4 9:22(09:26) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WIS46 (#0 T.Gray; #44 R.Dunham)
4 9:57(10:05) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #4 M.Coleman caught at WIS36, for 18 yards to the WIS47 (#28 L.Talich), 1ST DOWN
4 10:27(10:43) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short middle to #85 G.Stec caught at WIS28, for 6 yards to the WIS29 (#4 J.Ausberry; #34 D.Bowen)
4 10:48(10:48) #36 M.Drescher kickoff 64 yards to the WIS01 #15 N.Palmer return 22 yards to the WIS23 (#25 B.Logan)
4 10:43Timeout Notre Dame, clock 10:43
4 10:48Timeout Notre Dame, clock 10:48
Outcome distribution
WIS by 8+
0.0%
WIS by 4–7
0.0%
WIS by 1–3
0.0%
Tie
0.0%
ND by 1–3
0.0%
ND by 4–7
0.0%
ND by 8+
100.0%
Projected final score · college model
seconds/150 baseline · 3:49 of game clock leftWIS
13
ND
40
Winner
ND 99.5%
Margin
27 pts
Proj. total
50 vs 45.5
Confidence
high
Versus the spread
ND -21.0 covers91.7%
WIS +21.0 covers8.3%
Versus the total 45.5
Over 45.595.6%
Under 45.54.4%
ND by 8+100.0%
ND by 4–70.0%
ND by 1–30.0%
Pace-blended projection: 3.0 more points expected · ±2.6 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.
Point spread & ticket
No-vig
—
Edge
—
EV
—
DraftKings feed · spread -21.0
Position manager
Enter the current price for both sides to calculate the original UIs’ probability-weighted hedge range.
Clock leverage
3
estimated possessions remaining
3:49 · college seconds/150 baseline · 3 scores to erase current margin
Pace leans on 20 possessions already used — drive length is nearly memoryless, so a long live drive doesn't shrink the count on its own.
Possession count is the input casual prices often miss. Late one-score states carry extra uncertainty.
Guardrails
Set limits before placing the first bet.
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