Live MLB win probability and run expectancy
Verified game feed
mlb · 10/23 - 8:00 PM EDT
ESPN public feedRays
0:0
10/23 - 8:00 PM EDT
Brewers
Top 1
Inning
Top 1
Count
0-0
Outs
0
Bases
empty
Last: No play posted
Model · MIL win
band 38.8%–64.8%RE 0.481 · 9.0 innings of variance · MLB market-total baseline
Enter both prices
A market comparison needs both sides of the moneyline.
Live play-by-play
Newest first · 0 playsNo play-by-play has been posted for this game.
Outcome distribution
MLB model · projected final
market run-environment baseline · 18.0 half-innings leftTB
3
MIL
3
Winner
MIL 51.8%
Margin
0 runs
Proj. total
6.5 vs 6.5
Confidence
low
Versus the total 6.5
league-average · 6.5 more runs expected · ±4.3 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.
Game-pace model · projected final
observed runs/9 baseline · 18.0 half-innings leftTB
3
MIL
3
Winner
MIL 51.6%
Margin
0 runs
Proj. total
6.5 vs 6.5
Confidence
low
Versus the total 6.5
league-average · 6.5 more runs expected · ±4.9 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.
Model comparison
same live state, two run-scoring baselinesMLB proj.
3–3
Game-pace proj.
3–3
Total gap
0.0 runs
Win gap
0.2pt
The MLB model leans on the posted total as the run environment; the game-pace model leans on runs actually scored so far. Where they disagree most, the total is most sensitive to how much of tonight’s scoring you believe.
Forecast · what moves this number
Every row is the same model re-run on a changed game state, against MIL. Base right now: 51.8%.
If the clock just runs
After 1 more inning
bases cleared · score unchanged
51.9% +0.1pt
no line posted
After 2 more innings
bases cleared · score unchanged
52.1% +0.2pt
no line posted
After 3 more innings
bases cleared · score unchanged
52.2% +0.4pt
no line posted
If the next score goes…
MIL score 1
same inning state
60.9% +9.0pt
no line posted
MIL score 3
same inning state
76.9% +25.1pt
no line posted
TB score 1
same inning state
42.7% −9.1pt
no line posted
TB score 3
same inning state
26.0% −25.8pt
no line posted
Market & ticket
No-vig
—
Edge
—
EV
—
DraftKings feed
Position manager
Enter the current price for both sides to calculate the original UIs’ probability-weighted hedge range.
Pitcher workload
MLB has not posted enough pitcher data for a reliable fatigue read.