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Live MLB win probability and run expectancy

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mlb · Bot 5th

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WSH

Nationals

4:2

Bot 5th

LAD

Dodgers

outs
·count

Bottom 5

Inning

Bottom 5

Count

0-1

Outs

1

Bases

2nd

Last: Brad Lord pitches to Mookie Betts

Model · LAD win

band 21.6%–38.4%
30.0%

RE 0.664 · 4.5 innings of variance · MLB market-total baseline

Enter both prices

A market comparison needs both sides of the moneyline.

Live play-by-play

Newest first · 30 plays
5th Inning Brad Lord pitches to Mookie Betts
5th Inning Lord relieved Alvarez
5th Inning Edman doubled to left, Muncy scored.
5th Inning Andrew Alvarez pitches to Tommy Edman
5th Inning E. Hernández struck out swinging.
5th Inning Andrew Alvarez pitches to Enrique Hernandez
5th Inning Muncy singled to right.
5th Inning Andrew Alvarez pitches to Max Muncy
5th Inning Bottom of the 5th inning
5th Inning Middle of the 5th inning
5th Inning House flied out to right.
5th Inning Abrams to second on pickoff error by pitcher Treinen.
5th Inning Abrams to second on pickoff error by pitcher Treinen.
5th Inning Blake Treinen pitches to Brady House
5th Inning Abrams walked.
5th Inning Blake Treinen pitches to CJ Abrams
5th Inning Chaparro struck out swinging.
5th Inning Blake Treinen pitches to Andres Chaparro
5th Inning Crews flied out to left.
5th Inning Blake Treinen pitches to Dylan Crews
5th Inning Treinen relieved Stewart
5th Inning Top of the 5th inning
4th Inning End of the 4th inning
4th Inning Rojas flied out to shortstop.
4th Inning Andrew Alvarez pitches to Miguel Rojas
4th Inning Tucker flied out to left.
4th Inning Andrew Alvarez pitches to Kyle Tucker
4th Inning T. Hernández flied out to center.
4th Inning Andrew Alvarez pitches to Teoscar Hernandez
4th Inning Bottom of the 4th inning

Outcome distribution

WSH by 3+
43.6%
WSH by 1–2
28.7%
LAD by 1–2
17.5%
LAD by 3+
10.2%

MLB model · projected final

market run-environment baseline · 8.7 half-innings left

WSH

8

–

LAD

7

Winner

WSH 70.0%

Margin

1 runs

Proj. total

14.9 vs 8.5

Confidence

low

Versus the spread

LAD -194.0 covers0.5%
WSH +194.0 covers99.5%

Versus the total 8.5

Over 8.593.8%
Under 8.56.2%
WSH by 3+43.6%
WSH by 1–228.7%
LAD by 1–217.5%
All other outcomes10.2%

Pace-blended projection: 8.9 more runs expected · ±4.2 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.

Game-pace model · projected final

observed runs/9 baseline · 8.7 half-innings left

WSH

9

–

LAD

7

Winner

WSH 68.1%

Margin

2 runs

Proj. total

16.5 vs 8.5

Confidence

low

Versus the spread

LAD -194.0 covers0.5%
WSH +194.0 covers99.5%

Versus the total 8.5

Over 8.595.4%
Under 8.54.6%
WSH by 3+44.5%
WSH by 1–225.5%
LAD by 1–217.1%
All other outcomes12.9%

Pace-blended projection: 10.5 more runs expected · ±4.8 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.

Model comparison

same live state, two run-scoring baselines

MLB proj.

8–7

Game-pace proj.

9–7

Total gap

-1.6 runs

Win gap

1.9pt

The MLB model leans on the posted total as the run environment; the game-pace model leans on runs actually scored so far. Where they disagree most, the total is most sensitive to how much of tonight’s scoring you believe.

Market & ticket

No-vig

—

Edge

—

EV

—

DraftKings feed

Position manager

Enter the current price for both sides to calculate the original UIs’ probability-weighted hedge range.

Pitcher workload

MLB has not posted enough pitcher data for a reliable fatigue read.

Guardrails

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