Hedge calculator

What a hedge really buys

A hedge is a second bet on the opposite result of one you already hold. Its purpose is not to make money — it is to convert an uncertain outcome into a certain, smaller one. The question is never "can I hedge", because you almost always can. The question is what the certainty costs and whether it is worth paying.

The formula

Start with the total return of the open bet: stake multiplied by the decimal odds you took. A $100 bet at +250 returns $350 in total. To flatten it completely, you lay enough on the other side that its return also equals $350. Divide $350 by the decimal price now available on the other side. At −180 that decimal is 1.556, so the hedge stake is $225. Your total outlay is $325, and $350 comes back regardless of who wins — a locked $25.

Reading the trade honestly

Without the hedge, the bet either wins $250 or loses $100. With it, you make $25 with certainty. You are paying $225 of potential upside to remove $100 of downside. Whether that is a good deal depends on two things: the real probability the original bet wins, and how much the swing matters to your bankroll.

On expected value alone, a full hedge is almost always negative, because you cross the spread a second time and pay the vig again. If the +250 was a fair price when you took it, hedging at −180 hands part of that value straight back. Hedging is a risk decision, not a value decision, and it is worth being clear with yourself about which one you are making.

When hedging is the right call

• The open bet is large relative to your bankroll and a loss would meaningfully hurt.
• The other side has moved in your favour, so the hedge is cheap in expected-value terms.
• You need the cash, or the psychological weight of the position is affecting later decisions.

Partial hedges

Full hedging is rarely the best answer. Laying half or a third of the calculated stake removes most of the sting of a loss while keeping real upside. A useful habit: hedge just enough that the losing branch breaks even. That stake is your original outlay divided by the hedge decimal minus one — smaller than a full hedge, and it converts a risky bet into a free roll on the rest.

Watch the timing

Live hedge prices move fast, and the number on your screen may not be the number you get filled at. Compute the hedge before you need it, decide your trigger in advance, and re-check the price the moment before you place it. A hedge placed in a panic at a bad number is usually worse than no hedge at all.