Who builds these models

Who writes these models

Joseph Tuttle. The racing side of this site started at the paddock rather than the spreadsheet — shape, pace and trip first, arithmetic second — and the football and baseball work grew out of the same habit of asking what a number leaves out. There is no team, no syndicate and no tout service behind this. One person, in the open.

What the models do

• Read live game state from public feeds and convert it into a win probability with an uncertainty band.
• Strip the vig from the posted two-way market so the comparison is honest.
• Say plainly when the model band overlaps the market, which is most of the time.
• Project a final score and margin distribution from pace and market-implied totals.
• Price harness racing shape, closing math and trip notes into fair win percentages.

What they do not account for

• Injuries and lineup news that has not reached the data feed yet.
• Weather — wind and cold change both scoring and variance, and none of it is encoded here.
• Motivation and context: rest, travel, meaningless late-season games, coaching changes.
• Book-specific limits and pricing. The price you can actually get may not be the price on screen.
• Correlated bets and parlays. Every number here prices a single market in isolation.

Where the data comes from

Live football and baseball game state comes from public ESPN scoreboard and summary feeds; pitcher workload comes from MLB's public data. Prices shown are whatever those feeds carry, and you can override the live spread by hand when your book is on a different number. Racing tools run entirely on what you enter.

How to read anything on this site

These are analytical tools, not betting advice, and the models are illustrative rather than calibrated for real-money use. When a number disagrees with the market by less than the width of its own confidence band, the correct action is to do nothing. The site is designed to say that out loud rather than manufacture a play.

Corrections

If a model looks wrong, it may well be. Assumptions get revised in public here rather than quietly. If betting has stopped being entertainment for you, the responsible gambling page has free, confidential help lines.