Pick an MLB game, get the model's number
Live odds updated 0s ago
Games
Nationals @ Dodgers
Bot 5th · run-environment modelRE 0.664 · 4.5 innings of variance · game-pace baseline
Moneyline read
Model
LAD +213
Market
LAD -194
LAD wins 31.9% vs market 63.1% · model sees 31.2 pts of value on WSH
Total read — run environment
Model
16.5
Market
8.5
Over 95.4% · Under 4.6% · model 8.0 runs off market
Projected final
WSH 9·LAD 7
WSH wins 68.1% · confidence low · Pace-blended projection: 10.5 more runs expected · ±4.8 on the total
Betting calculator
LAD -194 liveProfit if it wins
$51.55
Returns $151.55 total
ROI on the stake
51.5%
Decimal 1.515
Implied probability
66.0%
Break-even win rate at this price
No-vig fair probability
63.1%
Book hold 4.6%
Model win probability
31.9%
From the live model
Expected value
−$51.66
Negative at this price
Market odds
via DraftKings · as of 3:43 AMLAD spread
-194.0
WSH spread
+194.0
Total
O/U 8.5
LAD moneyline
-194
WSH moneyline
+159
Odds above are from the live feed, not a specific book — lines move and vary by book. Always confirm the number at the book before betting.
Model reads are illustrative and not betting advice. If the model and the market disagree by less than a couple of points, there is usually no bet. 21+. Help: 1-800-GAMBLER.