PRE · 0s ago

Live football win probability and fair odds

League

Verified game feed

NCAA · 9/7 - 7:30 PM EDT

ESPN public feed
SMU

SMU

0:0

9/7 - 7:30 PM EDT

FSU

Florida St

SMU goalSMU ball · 1st & 10FSU goal

Possession

SMU

Down & distance

1st & 10

Field

75 yds to goal

Timeouts

SMU 3 · FSU 3

Last: No play posted

Model · FSU win

band 35.7%46.7%
41.2%

EP 0.90 · 24 possessions projected · college seconds/150 baseline

Enter both prices

A market comparison needs both sides of the moneyline.

Live play-by-play

Newest first · 0 plays

No play-by-play has been posted for this game.

Outcome distribution

SMU by 8+
39.7%
SMU by 4–7
10.2%
SMU by 1–3
7.7%
Tie
2.5%
FSU by 1–3
7.2%
FSU by 4–7
8.7%
FSU by 8+
24.0%

Projected final score · college model

seconds/150 baseline · 60:00 of game clock left

SMU

28

FSU

25

Winner

SMU 58.8%

Margin

3 pts

Proj. total

52.5 vs 52.5

Confidence

medium

Versus the spread

FSU +3.0 covers48.8%
SMU -3.0 covers51.2%

Versus the total 52.5

Over 52.550.0%
Under 52.550.0%
SMU by 8+39.7%
FSU by 8+24.0%
SMU by 4–710.2%
All other outcomes26.1%

Pace-blended projection: 52.5 more points expected · ±10.5 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.

Point spread & ticket

No-vig

Edge

EV

DraftKings feed · spread 3.0

Position manager

Enter the current price for both sides to calculate the original UIs’ probability-weighted hedge range.

Clock leverage

24

estimated possessions remaining

15:00 · college seconds/150 baseline · 0 scores to erase current margin

Possession count is the input casual prices often miss. Late one-score states carry extra uncertainty.

Guardrails

Set limits before placing the first bet.
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