PLUMBBETTING · HORSE RACING
DELAWARE COUNTY FAIR · TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026
Race 1 — counting the 1s
Opening quarter order and trip roles · 9 live runners
COUNTING THE 1Severy call on the lead = 3 pts · a win = +5 · supporting history onlygap 26
INSIDE 1–379
52% · 3/3 with a count
MIDDLE 4–636
24% · 3/3 with a count
OUTSIDE 7+36
24% · 3/3 with a count
3 inside 1–3 horses carry a count. They can't all cut it — whoever sits gets the trip.
WIN% ORDER TO THE QUARTER · TRIP FLOWprojected Win% sets this official order — first over comes out of 3rd (or 4th if the 3rd is 10-1+), second over off 5th/6th by win%
| POS | HORSE | TRIP | ML | WIN% | READ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1HEY DRIVER | controls | 2-1 | 39.4% | Highest projected Win% — cuts it to the quarter. |
| 2 | 9OTIS L | 7-2 | 13.5% | Second-highest projected Win% — into the pocket. | |
| 3 | 2ROSE RUN CHAOS | first over | 4-1 | 13.2% | Sitting 3rd and live enough to be pulled — first horse out. |
| 4 | 7WHAT A HOUDINI | sits in | 12-1 | 9.8% | Covered up behind the first-over move. |
| 5 | 3BULLSEYE LANE | second over | 7-2 | 9.6% | Live one of the pair (9.6%) — follows the cover for the second-over trip. |
| 6 | 4GOING STEADY | sits in | 12-1 | 9.0% | Left sitting when the live one took the cover. |
| 7 | 6ROLL LIKE I ROLL | sits in | 25-1 | 2.9% | Buried behind the stack — waits for the seam. |
| 8 | 5LONGHAUL | third over | 25-1 | 1.7% | Stacked third in the outer flow (1.7%) — follows the second-over horse. |
| 9 | 8MJS KENYA SHILLING | 25-1 | 1.0% |
| HORSE | PROJECTED | RAW | LAST 4 | WHERE THE POINTS ARE | POST | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3BULLSEYE LANE | 53 | 128 | 63 | 3 | 7-2 | |
| 4GOING STEADY | 27 | 58 | 21 | 4 | 12-1 | |
| 9OTIS LPOST 9 | 17 | 44 | 6 | 9 | 7-2 | |
| 2ROSE RUN CHAOS | 14 | 37 | 19 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1HEY DRIVER | 12 | 45 | 20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8MJS KENYA SHILLINGPOST 8 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 25-1 | |
| 6ROLL LIKE I ROLL | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 25-1 | |
| 7WHAT A HOUDINIPOST 7 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 12-1 | |
| 5LONGHAUL | 0 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 25-1 |
Bars run 1Q · 1/2 · 3/4 · STR · FIN. Projected applies the front end: outside posts are credited up by (post − 6) ÷ divisor because a 1 from out there was earned, then a crowded post block is divided down — only one of them gets to sit on the lead.
CONSOLIDATED · WIN% × POINTS → QUARTER ORDER → TRIP-ADJUSTED WIN%
S = Win%^α × (Points+1)^β · P(lead) = S ÷ ΣS · order by S · adj win% = Win% × trip factor, renormalized · use RePos ▲▼ to rearrange the early order and recalibrate
| POS | HORSE | TRIP | ML | WIN% | PTS | LEAD% | ADJ WIN% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1HEY DRIVERRePos | CONTROLS | 2-1 | 39.4% | 12 | 34.5% | 56.8% (+17.4) |
| 2 | 3BULLSEYE LANERePos | 7-2 | 9.6% | 53 | 17.1% | 9.2% (-0.4) | |
| 3 | 9OTIS LRePos | FIRST OVER | 7-2 | 13.5% | 17 | 13.9% | 7.8% (-5.7) |
| 4 | 2ROSE RUN CHAOSRePos | SITS IN | 4-1 | 13.2% | 14 | 12.4% | 10.4% (-2.8) |
| 5 | 4GOING STEADYRePos | SECOND OVER | 12-1 | 9.0% | 27 | 11.5% | 5.6% (-3.4) |
| 6 | 7WHAT A HOUDINIRePos | SITS IN | 12-1 | 9.8% | 8 | 7.1% | 7.3% (-2.6) |
| 7 | 6ROLL LIKE I ROLLRePos | THIRD OVER | 25-1 | 2.9% | 9 | 2.2% | 1.2% (-1.6) |
| 8 | 8MJS KENYA SHILLINGRePos | SITS IN | 25-1 | 1.0% | 11 | 0.8% | 0.7% (-0.3) |
| 9 | 5LONGHAULRePos | SITS IN | 25-1 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4% | 1.1% (-0.5) |